Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.666531 20.252828 21.998165 24.078040 26.512227 29.300740 32.781591
2024-10-06 16.155565 18.227813 20.671544 23.826144 27.886371 33.085242 40.522215
2024-10-13 14.500416 16.826032 19.712272 23.677391 29.200126 37.015703 49.821270
2024-10-20 13.152378 15.569419 18.682323 23.164928 29.813770 40.060875 59.135708
2024-10-27 12.584595 15.207611 18.719919 24.044150 32.531478 47.055636 79.257603
2024-11-03 11.795887 14.450886 18.100518 23.834235 33.466755 51.350313 97.570309
2024-11-10 11.210654 13.905923 17.701458 23.869144 34.777748 56.822392 125.022031
2024-11-17 10.743442 13.477906 17.414984 24.019190 36.301248 63.403735 167.377034
2024-11-24 10.327877 13.085323 17.134031 24.123214 37.746019 70.557421 232.771194
2024-12-01 9.891070 12.627325 16.706271 23.908786 38.493362 76.371322 320.105934
2024-12-08 9.551992 12.289061 16.433187 23.925702 39.731938 84.455151 504.557952
2024-12-15 9.200596 11.909136 16.060885 23.711127 40.405427 91.315734 839.194603
2024-12-22 8.863313 11.537284 15.683314 23.461198 40.997993 98.722168 1783.657412
2024-12-29 8.563705 11.207486 15.352203 23.264740 41.696721 107.460448 9371.288671
2025-01-05 8.301590 10.921753 15.074212 23.140561 42.565377 118.180472 NaN
2025-01-12 7.998367 10.556918 14.638965 22.655022 42.370850 123.732797 NaN
2025-01-19 7.936985 10.569044 14.846498 23.504898 46.135266 158.288032 NaN
2025-01-26 7.714698 10.312909 14.569781 23.304262 46.783595 174.544838 NaN
2025-02-02 7.542773 10.129889 14.410124 23.338478 48.190510 201.519923 NaN
2025-02-09 7.397763 9.983651 14.306181 23.483191 50.024472 240.763877 NaN
2025-02-16 7.255351 9.835113 14.188401 23.583437 51.766613 290.231399 NaN
2025-02-23 7.080502 9.625943 13.947974 23.377055 52.368656 329.591671 NaN
2025-03-02 6.944499 9.475982 13.808473 23.393361 53.837317 402.310170 NaN